A fully-systematic vol-managed trend book — an AI and semiconductor momentum core paired with a commodity-trend diversifier. Its first full month was a strong one: +21.6% in September, against a roughly flat S&P 500 and a Nasdaq-100 up low single digits. Five weeks is not a track record, and the sections below set out the drawdown, the win rate and the caveats alongside the headline.
Inception August 27, 2026 · Collective2 Score 67 · figures are hypothetical / model-account results
Since inception, against the benchmarks
Measured to September 23 — the date of the official investor update — the book is ahead of both benchmarks by a wide margin over a window in which the S&P 500 barely moved. The path matters more than the end point: it opened with a losing stub of August, turned positive in the first week of September, then put together four consecutive up weeks. Rebased to zero at inception.
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| Strategy | SPY | QQQ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Aug 31 | −3.3 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Sep 4 | +0.7 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Sep 11 | +5.9 | −1.0 | +0.2 |
| Sep 18 | +9.0 | −0.9 | +0.9 |
| Sep 25 | +16.8 | +0.3 | +3.3 |
| Sep 30 | +17.6 | −0.8 | +2.8 |
Week by week
Four up weeks in a row is not the normal shape of a trend book, and it should not be read as the normal shape of this one. The −3.3% August stub and the −8.05% drawdown that followed it are the same strategy, in the same month, doing the thing a concentrated momentum core does in both directions.
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| Week | Strategy | SPY | QQQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug (partial) | −3.3 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Sep wk 1 | +4.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 |
| Sep wk 2 | +5.2 | −0.9 | +0.3 |
| Sep wk 3 | +2.9 | +0.1 | +0.7 |
| Sep wk 4 | +7.2 | +1.2 | +3.1 |
| Since inception | +16.6 | +0.3 | +3.6 |
Sectors we're invested in
Published sleeve weights at month end — an AI and semiconductor core with a commodity-trend diversifier.
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| Sleeve | Weight |
|---|---|
| Semiconductors | 42.5% |
| Commodities | 21.4% |
| Software & Cloud | 16.2% |
| Hardware / AI infra | 8.0% |
| Biotech | 8.0% |
| Crypto / Miners | 3.9% |
What we'd flag
Three things worth more attention than the headline number. A 40.6% win rate is normal, not a warning — a trend book is right less than half the time and makes its money on the size of the winners, not the count. The −8.05% drawdown is the honest measure of what this feels like to hold; the strategy was mid-drawdown as recently as September 16. And one month proves almost nothing: there is no Sharpe ratio here because roughly a month of data cannot produce a meaningful one. Judge this book over quarters, through a period when momentum stops working, not over its first five weeks.
Strategy 157409443 on Collective2 · benchmarks SPY / QQQ. Figures are hypothetical / model-account results, not audited broker statements. As-of dates differ by measure: strategy returns and Collective2 Score to 2026-09-23 (investor update); drawdown, win rate and leverage to 2026-09-16; US equity prices to the 2026-09-30 close; commodities to 2026-09-29. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and nothing here is investment, legal, or tax advice.